Monday, December 21, 2015

Could Giants Make Playoffs

I haven't found anyone yet who has done this analysis. Giants have a 1/13 chance.


Sunday, November 1, 2015

Exploring Unusual Paths to the NBA

Building off the first article I wrote for this blog, I give you the second annual report on unusual paths to the NBA.

 

As of opening day this year, 425 of a possible 450 roster spots (94.4%) went to players who were either

a) 2015 Draft Picks
OR
b) Players who were on an NBA team roster at some point during the 2014-15 regular season

 

This 94.4% figure is very similar figure to last season (94.8%). Out of the remaining 25 roster spots 4 were left vacant, which leaves 21 players who somehow managed to rise above the cream of the fringe crop and snag a roster spot.

Using the same grouping that I used in last year’s iteration of this article, let's take a look at how these 21 players got to the point where they can officially call themselves NBA players:


Group 1: The Brad Miller All-Stars (undrafted, from this past season, rookies from US colleges)

 

·        TJ McConnell, 76ers

o   McConnell, a 6’2’’ point guard who split his college career between Duquesne and Arizona, was an AP Honorable Mention All-American in his senior season and helped lead the Wildcats to two Elite 8 appearances. McConnell is already seeing playing time – averaging 27 minutes per game through the 76ers first two games.

·        Cliff Alexander, Blazers

o   A top-five high school recruit, Alexander had a rocky freshman season at Kansas – he battled injuries and inconsistent play, and was suspended in February for an NCAA violation stemming from his mother accepting benefits from an agent. He played for the Nets during the summer league and was signed by the Blazers. Fun fact about Alexander – in his senior year of high school he won the Chicago Public High School League championship, the title game was a quadruple overtime win against Jahlil Okafor’s team.

·        Luis Montero, Blazers

o   This is a fascinating story. Montero, a native of the Dominican Republic, was unable to qualify to play Division I basketball and ended up at Westchester Community College in New York. He had one successful season there in 2013-14 but before he was able to plant himself at a Division I college, it was discovered that WCC had altered the transcripts of several of its players who were attempting to land D1 scholarships. This led WCC to cancel its 2014-15 season, leaving Montero without a team and his ability to transfer to a D1 school significantly hampered. Montero spend the 2014-15 season individually preparing for the draft, went undrafted, landed with Portland for the summer league and landed a training camp invite + roster spot.

·        Duje Dukan, Kings

o   Dukan did not start a single game in his four years at Wisconsin but was an integral sixth man on last season’s national runner-up Badger team. The son of former European basketball star and Bulls scout Ivica Dukan, Duje was a ballboy for the Bulls in his youth. Dukan’s father also has strong connections with Vlade Divac, which likely played a role in his landing with the Kings.

·        Christian Wood, 76ers

o   Wood has bounced back from going undrafted and landed with the 76ers after playing for Houston in the summer league. Some analysts had Wood pegged as a first round pick but questions about his subpar shot selection and possible lack of ability to put on weight led him to slide out of the draft.

 

Group 2: The Luis Scola All-Stars (drafted international players left to develop overseas, aka draft and stash players)

 

·        Walter Tavares, Hawks

o   Last year the 7’3’’ Tavares became the first player from Cape Verde (a small island off the coast of West Africa) to be drafted into the NBA, and the Hawks signed him this offseason. The 23-year-old only started playing basketball at age 18 when he was discovered by a German tourist to Cape Verde, and has spent the last five years playing in Spain. Unfortunately, his first NBA pre-season involved this:

·        Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

o   Jokic was drafted last year by the Nuggets with the 41st pick. At just 20 years of age last season, he won the Adriatic League MVP. Some scouts have compared him to a young Marc Gasol, and his stock has sky-rocketed since nearly falling out of the draft a year ago. He has already scored 12 points and snagged 9 rebounds in just 22 minutes this season through 2 games.

·        Nemanja Bjelica, Timberwolves

o   Bjelica was a high 2nd round pick by the Timberwolves in 2010 and has spent his time since playing in Spain and Turkey. He was the Euroleague MVP in 2015 and helped Fenerbache team to a 4th place finish in the Euroleague. This past summer at Eurobasket, Bjelica dropped 24 points and 10 on a Spain team loaded with NBA talent. He’s the real deal, and coupled with a budding young core in Minnesota, fans have a lot to be excited about.

·        Raul Neto, Jazz

o   Neto, a late 2nd round pick of the Jazz in 2013, has been playing in Spain for the past four seasons. The Brazilian has long been one of the best young international players, winning the MVP of the EUROCAMP in 2013 and making the Brazilian national team for the 2012 Olympics as a 19-year-old. A brilliant facilitator and high energy defender, his dad’s favorite players is apparently John Stockton, which makes his place with the Jazz all the more exciting for him.

·        Tibor Pleiss, Jazz

o   The German Pleiss was drafted by the Nets in 2010 (2nd round) and since then his rights have been shipped a few times – first to Atlanta, then Oklahoma City, and then this past February to the Jazz in the Enes Kanter trade. Pleiss is a giant at 7’3’’ and played last season in Spain, where he shot 62% from the floor and 86% from the free-throw line. His defense is suspect, but he should complement players like Rudy Gobert quite nicely.

 

Group 3: The Alan Anderson All-Stars (started in the NBA, went abroad, and now have made it back to the NBA)

 

·        Sasha Vujacic, Knicks

o   With the exception of a two game stint as part of a ten-day contract with the Clippers during the 2013-14 season, the 31-year-old Vujacic last played in the NBA during the 2010-11 season with the Nets (they were still in New Jersey then). He has since split his time in Turkey, Italy and Spain. A former Laker who won two championships in Phil Jackson’s triangle offense, Vujacic is a lights out shooter who should not only provide much needed support in that area, but can serve as a mentor in helping his team learn the triangle offense.

·        Sonny Weems, Suns

o   The 29-year-old Weems played with the Nuggets and Raptors until 2011, then took his talent overseas during the lockout (first player to leave the NBA during the lockout) only to return this year with the Suns. He has spent the past four seasons in Lithuania and Russia, the latter with powerhouse CSKA Moscow as the highest paid player in Europe – Grantland did a great article on this team last year. Seems like a good dude, I wish him the best!

 

Group 4: The Patrick Beverley All-Stars (college players who were drafted, go play elsewhere first, then begin NBA career, aka college draft and stash players)

 

·        Lamar Patterson, Hawks

o   Patterson was drafted in the 2nd round by the Bucks in 2014 (traded to Atlanta on draft night) out of Pitt and spent his first season as a professional in Turkey. So far so good for Patterson – he is averaging 20 minutes and 5 points per game through the Hawks first three games.

·        Sasha Kaun, Cavs

o   The Cavs have owned the draft rights to the 30-year-old Kaun since 2008 (he was drafted by Seattle and his rights were immediately traded to the Cavs). Kaun was a fantastic four year player at Kansas where he was part of the 2008 national championship team. He then played the first seven seasons of his professional career in his home country of Russia with powerhouse CSKA Moscow. He played for David Blatt on the Russian National Team, where he was teammates with the player he currently backs up – Timofey Mozgov. Fun fact – Kaun graduated with a degree in Computer Science.

·        Josh Huestis, Oklahoma City Thunder

o   Heustis was part of a very interesting 2014 draft night scenario with the Thunder in which he was essentially drafted to be a domestic draft-and-stash player in the D-League for one season. Huestis was drafted with the 29th pick in the first round, meaning he was required to be presented with a guaranteed contract offer (although a team could rescind the rights to the player, which is what happened to Travis Knight), but the Thunder worked out a deal with his agent whereby he would be drafted with the stipulation that he not accept the offer the Thunder were required to present to him and instead spend one season in the D-League, allowing the Thunder some cap flexibility and not having the burden of spending millions on a player who likely would play minimal minutes on a contender. It’s not clear that Huestis would have been drafted at all if not for this arrangement, which is why this scenario worked for the Thunder because other players likely would not have agreed to this stipulation.

 

Group 5: The Pablo Prigioni All-Stars (undrafted, veteran international free agents)

 

·       Cristiano Felicio, Bulls

o   The 23-year-old Brazilian played professionally in Brazil as a teenager, came to America at age 21 to attend a prep academy with the intention of becoming eligible to play basketball at Oregon, but his professional experience made him ineligible. He then returned to Brazil, went undrafted in 2014, and was picked up by the Bulls for the 2015 summer league. A likely D-League candidate this year.

·       Salah Mejri, Mavs

o   This past week the 29-year-old, 7’2’’ Mejri became the first Tunisian to play in an NBA game. He started playing basketball at 20 in Tunisia before embarking on a European career that took him to Belgium and Spain. After winning the Euroleague with Real Madrid in 2015, Mejri was signed by the Mavs during the summer and beat out veteran Samuel Dalembert for a roster spot. A mobile and athletic big, the Mavs will be looking to him to provide a shot blocking and rebounding presence.

·       Marcelo Huertas, Lakers

o   First – read this awesome story. The 32-year-old Huertas has been a star in Europe, playing in both Spain and Italy, in addition to being a cornerstone of the Brazilian national team. Signed by the Lakers this offseason, he has shown some incredible flashes of playmaking ability and should provide some good mentorship to Lakers rookie DeAngelo Russel.

·       Boban Marjanovic, Spurs

o   Majranovic has long been known in NBA circles due to his extreme measurements (7’4’’, 290 lbs, 7’8’’ wingspan) but concerns about his general health and lack of speed prevented him from making the jump to the NBA. Last season, however, Marjanovic blew up the Euroleague, averaging a double-double (rare in the Euroleague) and was named All-Euroleague First Team. He signed with the Spurs this past offseason, who I am sure will find good use for him.

 

Group 6: The Tim Legler All-Stars (undrafted non-international rookies who spent at least their first season out of college not in the NBA)

 

·        Willie Reed, Nets

o   The 25-year-old Reed played two average seasons at St. Louis University before being kicked out of school for a conduct violation. After going undrafted in 2011, he spent the past four season just on the cusp of making an NBA team – playing all four years in the D-League and spending every pre-season in an NBA training camp. The Nets poached him off of the Heat summer league team this past season and signed him to a one-year contract. He injured himself in the pre-season but still managed to survive final roster cuts.

·        Jonathon Simmons, Spurs

o   The 26-year-old Simmons has taken anything but a conventional route to the NBA. After playing at two junior colleges and one season at Houston, he went undrafted and signed with the ABA, a low level American minor league where he averaged 36 points per game. He then entered a tryout for the Austin Toros (the Spurs D-League team) where he actually had to pay a $150 fee to secure his spot in the tryout. He then spent the past two seasons with the Toros before being signed this offseason to a contract by the Spurs.