Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Lance Stephenson is Hogging All of the Rebounds!


So far this season Lance Stephenson of the Charlotte Hornets (seen here blowing out the candles on a cake at his 9th birthday) is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game, which is good for 13th in the league.

What makes this especially interesting is that he is only 6'5'' and is, positionally, a shooting guard. As of 11/11, he is averaging more rebounds than 23 out of 30 starting centers in the league, including Charlotte's own starting center Al Jefferson (see chart below). Also this is not just the result of one monster game, as he has four 10+ rebound games in seven games (including 3 games with 13). This isn't a fluke.

Starting Centers in the NBA for Each Team

Stephenson is putting up 23% more rebounds than the next closest guard in the league, Rajon Rondo (who is putting up Jason Kidd type numbers at 9 ppg, 11.2 apg, 8 rpg) and 36% more than the next closest guard after that - James Harden at 6.7 rpg.

Here are a few interesting things that stand out analytically:
  • While Stephenson is averaging 2.0 offensive rebounds per game, he is also averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. So while his offensive rebounds save possessions, he is giving up more possessions than he is saving with rebounds. Among those averaging at least 2.0 offensive rebounds per game (55 players) Stephenson has the highest differential in this area. 
  • Stephenson is possibly stealing rebounds - By using the NBA.com/stats rebounds dashboard (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202362/tracking/rebounds/) , we can see out of the 10.4 rebounds per game, an average of 8.3 are uncontested (no defender within 3.5 of ball). The NBA uses a stat called contested rebound %, and Stephenson's is at 20.5% (8.3/10.4). There is nobody else in the top-20 in the league in rebounds that comes even close to this figure! (see below). Without watching film, it could very well be the case that he is "stealing rebounds" - meaning that he is jumping in front of teammates who could otherwise be getting those rebounds. He is probably stealing them from Al Jefferson - who's defensive rebounding % has gone from 28.3% last season to 15.7% this season.




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