Thursday, November 13, 2014

Chris Copeland and Lavoy Allen - the "Net Positive Brothers"

Analyzing lineup statistics data is a great way quantify how well/not well your team does when certain players are/are not in the game.

There are two main sources you can use to get lineup data:
1) Basketball Reference (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/lineup_finder.cgi)
2) NBA.com/Stats (use the team indexes to look up individual team lineups, or for stats on every lineup combination used in the league this year, go here - http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/#!/)

I decided to take a look at the lineup data for one of my favorite NBA 2K15 teams, the Pacers. This season, despite a laundry list of injuries to their best players (Paul George, George Hill, David West), the Pacers have managed to hang in there - they are 3-6 as of 11/13 and last night beat the (then) 5-2 Miami Heat.

Two players in particular who stand out analytically speaking are Lavoy Allen and Chris Copeland. Last season Copeland played in only half of the Pacers games and averaged 6.5 minutes per game. Allen was acquired in the Danny Granger/Evan Turner trade and only averaged 8.0 minutes per game for the Pacers in 14 games played.

This year, however, those guys have stepped up big time. And in looking at the lineup stats, we can see that good things happen when they play at the same time. I'm going to begin calling them the "Net Positive" brothers - here's what the stats say:

  • When Frank Vogel plays both Copeland and Allen at the same time, the Pacers are significantly better than their team average standard of play
  • When both sit, the Pacers are significantly worse than their team average standard of play
  • When one is in and the other is out, the Pacers play about average relative to how they normally play
Chris Copeland and Lavoy Allen Lineup Statistics
Scenario
Total +/- (plus minus is how much your team is up or down by during the scenario)
Total Minutes (rounded to nearest minute)
Percentage of Team Minutes
+/- per 48 minutes
Both Copeland and Allen in the game
+42
65
15%
+31
Copeland in game, Allen out of the game
+2
150
34%
+1
Pacers Overall
-7
437
-
-1
Allen in game, Copeland out of the game
-2
82
19%
-1
Both Copeland and Allen out of game
-49
140
32%
-17

Also, for what it's worth, by my criteria Lavoy Allen is ranked 2nd in the NBA for win shares among "sixth men"


Stats queried on http://www.basketball-reference.com/  and nba.com/stats

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