Addition by Subtraction: Who are these Pistons?

by Alex Pressman 

(editor's note: this is the first contributing post on this site. If you would like to contribute a post or have an idea, please e-mail me at egoodman36@gmail.com)

The Pistons pulled one of the more surprising moves of the NBA season on December 21 back by cutting Josh Smith. Not a trade. Not a buyout. Stan Van Gundy, the Pistons joint coach/president of basketball operations, decided that Detroit was better off paying Smith's full salary for him not to be there.

Seven games into this decision, Van Gundy looks like the personnel mastermind we remember from his days in Orlando. The Pistons have not lost a game since off-loading Smith (they were 5-23 before the trade).

I have something to admit - up until the beginning of this season, I was a believer in the Josh Smith reclamation project. When Detroit added him, I thought he was the final piece in the formation of the most dominant front court in basketball. Added into the highly successful "Build around the paint with Drummond and Monroe" experiment - successful by the eye test, that is - I decided that the team would never miss another rebound, dominating a facet of the game that I personally hold in the highest regard. But I was wrong. I was wrong because like many people out there, I was wearing the Josh Smith brand Rose-Colored Glasses™, which allow me to see into 2005 - and only let you look up, at Smith's infinitely high ceiling.

In 2005, when Smith was a rookie with Atlanta, he was named to the All-Rookie second team and won the slam dunk contest. He was a 3-4 hybrid, but wasn't a tweener like so many with that label. He was too big for the 3's to handle and too fast for the 4's to keep up with. I expected big things, as did many. Getting into the fall of Josh Smith's career and his wasted talent could be a whole article in itself, but suffice it to say he never lived up to that potential. For now, let's just put on those glasses and bask in what could have been for two minutes.
 

Stats for 12/8

@FearTheSword Cavs have two players with 7+ offensive rebounds. Nets only have one player with 7 total rebounds.

— Eric Goodman (@ericdgoodman36) December 9, 2014

First time a team has had three players with 12+ rebounds since 2/11/2014

— Eric Goodman (@ericdgoodman36) December 9, 2014

@CavsSportsTalk First time since 11/7/2006 vs. ATL that Cavs have had two players in a game with 7+ offensive rebounds (Ilgauskus, Gooden).

— Eric Goodman (@ericdgoodman36) December 9, 2014

Scouting the DeRozan-less Raptors

"We The North" (13-4) lost in a closely contested overtime game to the Lakers (4-13) last night by a score of 129-122.

The purpose of this particular article is to understand through analytics the structural differences in how they played in the absence of DerMar Derozan, who is out indefinitely with a torn groin muscle (ouch).

Before we get to any number crunching, I did want to point out one play that happened at the end of regulation that exposes perhaps a flaw in how the NBA positions officials at the end of games. The score was tied at 109 and the Lakers had the ball for the last shot. Kobe drove to the hoop and was blocked on a great defensive play / possibly fouled (depending on which fan base you ask) from Jonas Valanciunas. James Johnson (the only NBA player in the shot clock era born in Wyoming) came down with the rebound and Kyle Lowry frantically called for a timeout (see picture below) with what appeared to be approximately 1.5 seconds remaining. The officials missed Lowry's timeout call, the clock expired, and the game went into overtime, where the Raptors, as stated above, were not victorious. 

While I do not believe there needs to be replay, per se, the fact of the matter is that there needs to be a ref right under the basket when the shot clock is off. These refs are set up in a standard "three person mechanics" formation, but it may not work well in this type of scenario.

Ref 1 in the diagram above should have, in theory, been able to see the timeout call, but he was focused on the play at hand. Ref 3, in my opinion, should have been much closer to the basket .The only thing he gains from that positioning is that he can see whether a shot is a two vs. three pointer, but that is a reviewable call anyway.

Since the majority of these shots at or near the buzzer will end up with either (a) a made basket or (b) a rebound under the basket, with the rebounding team looking to possibly call a timeout, there is no reason to not have a referee stationed there to make the quick call.

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Now to the numbers:

I compared how the Raptors as a team played against the Lakers on 11/30/2014 to their average performance this season aside from that game. Yes, I am fully aware that comparing a one game sample to a sixteen game sample may seem odd. Regardless, what I found in actually digging deep into the number is that a number of insights could be gleaned about the impact (and in many cases, lack of impact) of DeRozan’s absence.

Team Metric	Season Average	11/30 vs. LAL	What does it mean?
1st Half / 2nd Half percentage of field goals attempted from 3-pt range	24.8% / 31.1%	22.9% / 37.5%	The Raptors currently rank 10th in the NBA in percentage of field goals taken from 3-pt range at 28.2%. At 32.7% (which was their percentage against the Lakers) if they were to continue this trend, they would move up to top-2 in the NBA (Rockets are in first by a mile at 43.9%). Because DeRozan takes such a small percentage of his shots from three-point range (6.2%) and Vasquez, Williams and Ross all attempt at least 40% of their shots from 3-pt range,  it is not entirely surprising that this metric increased for this most recent game. If you break this down further, the first half/second half splits are interesting (especially when taken with the next metric below about close range shots). Half Percent of FG from 3 PT % Points in the Paint 1st Half 22.9% 34 2nd Half 37.5% 18 This is an interesting tidbit for opposing defenses who are scouting the Raptors – The Raptors went inside early and often, scoring +12 more points in the paint than their team average in the first half this season. Ultimately, however, they found themselves down by 9 points at halftime, and shot their way back into the game by shooting a much high percentage of their shots from 3-pt range in the second half relative to their typical season statistics in this area. With players who can, and will, shoot the three-pointer now taking DeRozan’s minutes, this increase in 2nd half 3-pt field goals could be a strategy the Raptors employ when they are falling behind in games.
1st Half/ 2nd Half percent of FG attempted from < 10 feet	45% / 44%	58% / 37%	The Raptors had a 29% increase in field goals from inside of 10 feet as a percentage of total field goals in the first half against the Lakers than their first-half season average. This has been a trend for the Raptors over the past few games – Percentage of field goals taken from within 10 feet of the basket 1st Half Season Average 1st Half vs. PHX 1st Half vs. DAL 1st Half vs. LAL 45% 47% 51% 58% The Raptors have been more likely to get the ball to Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas on close-range shots in their three most recent contests. Field Goal Attempts taken from within 10 feet of the basket 1st half season average 1st Half vs. PHX 1st. Half vs. DAL 1st Half vs. LAL Valanciunas 4.3 7 1 7 A. Johnson 3.0 1 9 4    It’s definitely something for opposing teams to be aware of – against ATL, PHX, and LAL, the Raptors were making clear efforts to feed JV very early on in games (note: he is Top-10 amongst center in percentage of field goals that are unassisted at 42% and can take defenders off the dribble). It will be interesting to see moving forward if their first option migrates towards getting the ball inside first, and then, as noted in the section above, trying to shoot their way back into the game if the strategy of taking short range shots and shots is not resulting in leads.
Third Quarter / Second Half Point Differential	+3.9 / + 7.5	+8.0 / + 9.0	The Raptors, as I pointed out in my article from Sunday, are absolutely terrorizing teams in the second half, especially in the third quarter, and this game was no exception. Dwane Casey clearly puts the right messages in his players’ heads at halftime about the need to come out strong and take over games, regardless of who is or is not in the lineup.
Opponent Shooting %	44.8%	49.0%	Overall, the Lakers shot better against the Raptors than their season average.  That said, there is not a huge delta here – if you watched the game, the Lakers shot the lights out in the first half, even on closely contested jumpshots. The Raptors could not have defended many of those shots any better. Because of this, I will chalk up the differential to the Lakers just having an “on” night, not any major gaps on the Raptors part. Some of those gaps, however, can be seen in the possible playing of Vasquez at the 2 (see player stats at bottom of scouting report).
Effective FG % (adjusted for 3 pt being x1.5 as valuable as a 2 pt shot)	50.3%	47.6%	Despite a small dip in effective field goal percentage, there is not enough variance here that there need be any cause for concern. If anything, I expect this to go up moving forward as the Raptors (likely) take more three pointers and fewer mid-range jumpers with DeRozan out of the lineup.
Turnover Differential (Turnovers forced minus turnovers committed)	+5.4	+2.0	The Raptors have the highest percentage of games this season with fewer than 10 turnovers (7 / 17 games) and the highest percentage of games with a positive turnover differential (14 / 17 games). The game against the Lakers was no exception, as they had 8 turnovers committed compared to 10 turnovers forced.  This showed that even with DeRozan out of the lineup, the Raptors continue to make good decisions on offense even as they adjust to a new rotation. The small turnover differential in this game could be attributed to adjusting to new rotations defensively, which meant that the Raptors forced fewer turnovers than usual. I would expect this to revert to the mean in the next few games. Teams can never afford to give up possessions on offense, but teams playing the Raptors need to be especially focused on this because they will likely not get those possessions back by forcing turnovers. Fun fact: in the three-point era (1979-80 season to present), teams with a positive turnover differential win 58% of the time).
Passes (from SportVU)	283	274	This is one of the neat new metrics outputted from the SportVU player tracking technology, although I had to adjust the results from the Lakers game for overtime (was not able to filter for player tracking with passes – NBA.com needs to work on that!). Roughly speaking, the team is moving the ball at the same rate in terms of passes per game.
First half free throw rate (FTA per FGA)	0.322	0.146	This is one of Dean Oliver’s “Four Factor” - Oliver is a Caltech grad who is essentially the godfather of advanced basketball analytics, he currently works for the Kings. He has singled out four factors, which he has found, when weighted, correlate most closely with wins. One of the big concerns for the Raptors with DeRozan out of the lineup was how often they would get to the free throw line in his absence, as he was one of the NBA’s best this season at drawing fouls per 36 minutes. In the first half it was clear that the Raptors struggled to draw fouls, but in the second half they more than tripled their free throw rate. This coincided with, as mentioned above, a +9 point differential in the second half. What was encouraging was that players like Greivis Vasquez and Patrick Patterson, who traditionally have low free throw rates, did very well in the 2nd half in this area. Player Season Avg. FT Rate 1st Half FT Rate vs. LAL 2nd Half FT Rate vs. LAL Vasquez .156 .000 .400 Williams .471 .500 .455 Patterson .196 .500 1.000 Ross .110 .000 .000 Lowry .425 .272 .600 Opposing teams should be wary about how certain players, such as Vasquez and Patterson, could be seeking to draw fouls more in DeRozan’s absence – if the Lakers game is any indication. As I pointed out in yesterday's article, per 36 minutes Williams drew as many fouls as DeRozan
Second half free throw rate (FTA per FGA)	0.382	0.525

Player	First half minutes differential compared to average first half mpg	Second half minutes differential compared to average second half mpg	What does it mean?
Greivis Vasquez	+ 6	+5	Casey will undoubtedly be trying various rotations over the next few games and beyond, but appeared to favor Vasquez/James Johnson in terms of distributing DeRozan’s first half minutes, and favor Vasquez/Ross  in terms of distributing DeRozan’s second half minutes. Here were some interesting lineup statistics I derived that stood out – Lineup Minutes Played +/- Raptors FG % Vasquez and Lowry 22 -7 44.2% Vasquez (no Lowry) 12 0 47.6% Lowry (no Vasquez) 19 0 38.7% This is a good rotation note for opponents. Teams should look to take advantage of the lineup the Raptors have on the floor is when Vasquez is asked to play the 2, since this appears to opens up gaps in the Raptors defense as the primary cause for the negative point differential (since their shooting was not horrendous in any of these scenarios).
Terrence Ross	+ 1	+6
Lou Williams	- 1	+3
James Johnson	+ 4	-4

Thoughts on the Rockets win

First off - this is great: Advanced Analytics have made their way to the scoreboard in Houston

@RocketsPR love the four factors on the scoreboard pic.twitter.com/V7tHNpCvw8
— Eric Goodman (@ericdgoodman36) November 27, 2014

Tonight the Rockets had 26 assists and 4 rebounds - a 6.5 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. This was the largest ratio for a team this season.

• The next largest is the Pelicans who had 6.2 A/TO ratio on 11/10, and prior to that the next closest this year was 4.6 for the Mavericks on 11/17. 
• Largest ratio since 3/9/2014 (Boston had 38 assists, 5 turnovers vs. Detroit)
• Yet they STILL are bottom 2 (only 76ers are worse) in Assist to Turnover ratio

Stats courtesy of NBA.com/stats and Basketball Reference

The Rockets Shoot a Lot of Three Pointers...

There's not even a close second - this goes back to when the three point line was first used in 1979-80

Team (All-Time)	% of FG's from 3 Pt Range
2014-15 Rockets	43.1%
2012-13 Knicks	35.4%
2009-10 Magic	35.0%
2012-13 Rockets	34.9%
2011-12 Magic	34.6%
2008-09 Magic	33.5%
2002-03 Celtics	33.1%
2013-14 Rockets	33.0%
2010-11 Magic	32.8%
2009-10 Knicks	32.2%
2007-08 Magic	32.2%
2013-13 Hawks	31.6%

Data courtesy of Basketball Reference

Aside from the 0-12 record...

The 2014-2015 Philadelphia 76ers are on pace to break some futility records in the advanced analytics sphere -

I'll have another post in the coming days that takes a historical look at scenarios in which teams have gone from perennially mediocre to perennially good - what I found was in 25/28 cases it was done through at least one high draft pick. While this gives some credence to what Sam Hinkie and the 76ers are doing (rebuilding through the draft in hopes of landing a franchise player), the fans can't be happy with these types of performances.


Analytics done on Basketball-reference.com

11/14 Analytics

@JimmySmith504 Along w/ Mavs - first time in NBA of B2B nights of teams with at least +45 win margin since 1994 http://t.co/GJLmKItLFV
— Eric Goodman (@ericdgoodman36) November 15, 2014

@cwmwrites Last night's Cavs win was NBA's highest scoring 1 pt win (non OT) since 1/13/2011 databall: http://t.co/ZBoUOhrUDT
— Eric Goodman (@ericdgoodman36) November 15, 2014

• Here's the BBall Reference Query

Also I got featured on SB Nation - http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2014/11/14/7222843/most-ridiculous-stats-mavericks-sixers-53-point-blowout-loss

The Nuggets are really, really bad at Defense .... and a random fact about Pat Reilly.

When you score 100+ points in five straight games and lose all of them, that's a bad sign... however it's far from unprecedented

I ran a query on Basketball Reference and found that the largest number of consecutive 100+ point scoring outputs without a win was the 1967-68 San Diego Rockets (they didn't move to Houston until the 1971-72 season), who  lost 15 straight games to end the season (including a 156-114 blowout against the Baltimore Bullets). Keep in mind there was no 3 pt line back then, which makes the scoring outputs all the more impressive.

Another fun fact about that Rockets team was that they had a rookie guard by the name of Pat Reilly who averaged 8 points in 16 minutes per game.

The record for most consecutive 110 + point allowed games in the 2000s is the 2007-08 Sonics who did it for 10 straight games. The overall record is the Cincinnati Royals for 31 straight games between the 1969-70 and 1970-71 seasons.