Projecting Future All Star Game Debut Dates

Background

The other day I was wondering whether or not Michael Jordan played in the all-star game his rookie year (he did - here's a great story on how players such as Isiah Thomas "froze him out" over jealousy of his Nike Air Jordan sneaker endorsement).

Then I started to wonder how long, on average, it takes All Stars to become just that - an actual nominal All Star. I looked at all All-Star games dating back to 1997, tracking data on any "1st appearances" that occured. 

Not surprisingly, for a player who makes the All Star team, the average number of years into his career before he makes his first all star appearance varies based on - 

     a) where a player was picked in the draft

     b) the position the player plays

Average Number of Years Needed to Make First All Star Appearance

	Draft Position
Position	Top 5	6 through 10	11 through 30	Second Round	Undrafted	Total
G	3.9 yrs	4.6 yrs	5.2 yrs	5.7 yrs	None	4.5 yrs
F	4.2 yrs	4.3 yrs	6.4 yrs	8.3 yrs	None	5.2 yrs
C	6.5 yrs	6.3 yrs	6.8 yrs	7.3 yrs	6.0 yrs	6.7 yrs
Total	4.3 yrs	4.7 yrs	6.1 yrs	7.2 yrs	6.0 yrs	5.2 yrs

Here are some interesting findings from the data:

• Since the 1997 All-Star game, only two players made the game in their rookie season (Tim Duncan and Yao). 
• During this stretch, the most veteran first time All Star was Anthony Mason in 2001, who was in the midst of his 13th season when he was selected as an injury replacement for Grant Hill. 

  

  His son also does this shaved
  word into head thing

• Out of the 108 first time all stars from 1997 to 2014 (which includes every player who began his career after the 1994-95 season)
• 96/108 (88.9%) were 1st round draft picks. 
• 10/108 (9.2%) were 2nd round draft picks
• 2/108 (1.9%) were Undrafted (Ben Wallace & Brad Miller)
• The 2002 All Star game featured 10 first time players, the most during the span from 1997 to 2014
• More of a note than a finding, but the 1999 All Star game was cancelled due to the lockout. There were nine players who made their All Star debut in the 2000 game, and some of these players, such as Allen Iverson, would have made the game had it been played in 1999. Originally I tried adjusting the data by projecting who would've made it that season, but it did not alter the findings in any significant way, so I decided not to mess with history for now :)

Projecting Future All Stars

On average there were 5.5 players per draft between the 1997 and 2006 drafts who were selected as All Stars. Keeping this data point in mind, along with the chart from above (and some boring standard deviation data which you can see in the attached set) I tried to select players who I think could make it as All Stars, and project when they will make the team.

Note: 2015 is this upcoming All-Star game

Player (position)	Draft Year	Model Projected 1st Time Appearance	Model Projected Latest Possible 1st Time Appearance
Serge Ibaka (PF)	2008	2015	2016
Ty Lawson (PG)	2009	2015	2016
Derrick Favors (PF)	2010	2015	2016
Gordon Hayward (SF)	2010	2015	2017
Kemba Walker (PG)	2011	2015	2017
DeMarcus Cousins (C)	2010	2016	2019
Greg Monroe (C)	2010	2016	2019
Lance Stephenson (SG)	2010	2016	2017
Klay Thompson (SG)	2011	2016	2018
Jimmy Butler (SG)	2011	2016	2018
Bradley Beal (SG)	2012	2016	2018
Jonas Valanciunas (C)	2011	2017	2020
Kawhi Leonard (SF)	2011	2017	2019
Victor Oladipo (PG)	2013	2017	2019
Andre Drummond (C)	2012	2018	2021
Tyler Zeller (C)	2012	2018	2021
Terrence Jones (PF)	2012	2018	2020
Draymond Green (PF)	2012	2018	2021
Michael Carter-Williams (PG)	2013	2018	2020
Giannis Antetokounmpo (SG)	2013	2018	2020
Tim Hardaway Jr (SG)	2013	2018	2020
Andrew Wiggins (SF)	2014	2018	2021
Jabari Parker (SF)	2014	2018	2021
Cody Zeller (C)	2013	2019	2022
Kelly Olynyk (C)	2013	2019	2022
Elfrid Payton (PG)	2014	2019	2021
Doug McDermott (SG)	2014	2019	2021
Jusuf Nurkic (C)	2014	2021	2023