I made a voluntary decision over Thanksgiving break to
begin watching and covering the Raptors. They have intrigued me this season due
to their hot start (both record wise and in terms of offensive ratings) despite
the absence of a bona-fide superstar, and the fact that they are one of the few
Eastern Conference teams to do well against the west (5-1). Plus in this, their
20th anniversary year, they will play a number of games in those
sweet throwback unis –
 |
| Does Kyle Lowry make this throwback uni look good, or is it the other way around? |
Things were going swimmingly for the 13-3 Raptors (who
rank 1st in the league in attendance) until Friday night, when
DeRozan, the team’s leader in both scoring and minutes played, went down with a
groin tear – which will sideline him “indefinitely”. Here is the video –
disclaimer: not for the squeamish reader…
Several teams in the NBA this year have had to deal with
injuries to a key player or players, with some of those teams (Pacers) faring
better than others (Thunder). I wanted to explore through the use of stats and analytics
to try and determine whether or not the Raptors could sustain their performance
despite not having DeRozan in the lineup.
Generally, in doing these types of analyses, I like to
look, to at least some extent, at four factor-type metrics (for more information about four factors and
Dean Oliver –click here). These are
the factors that Oliver, a stats Ph.D. who balled at hoops hotbed and later NCAA sanctioned Caltech as an undergrad
and now works for the Kings, has most closely correlated with wins. Not
surprisingly, in terms of metrics that are related to the four factors, the Raptors
excel relative to the rest of the league in many of them. For this analysis, I
took a closer look at how DeRozans injury will create a gap that needs to be
filled with respect to some of these metrics, as well as a few other.
Metric 1:
Personal Fouls Drawn
Raptors Rank: 2nd most in
league at 24.1 fouls drawn per game
DeRozan Stats: Leads team and is 10th
in league in fouls drawn per game at 5.4. The next closest on the Rockets is
Lowry at 5.1. Also, DeRozan is fifth in league in fouls draw in the fourth
quarter at 2.0 per game.
Synopsis: Getting to the foul line (as opposed to actually making the shots)
is one of Oliver’s four factors. DeRozan does a great job at drawing fouls,
especially 10+ feet from the basket (as John Schuhmann pointed out in his
blog on NBA.com). Because he converts at an 82.3% clip from the FT line,
this makes him an extremely valuable asset.
One guy who the Raptors can look to make up this DeRozan-less gap is Lou Williams. Williams, along with Greivis Vasquez, Terrence Ross, and James Johnson, are the four most likely candidates to take over DeRozan’s minutes. As you can see in the chart below, Williams draws fouls at a slightly lower rate than DeRozan and at a slightly higher rate than Lowry, but at a much higher rate than Vasquez, Ross or J. Johnson (referred to as J. Johnson because of Amir Johnson, the Raptors announcers call Amir “Amir”).
One guy who the Raptors can look to make up this DeRozan-less gap is Lou Williams. Williams, along with Greivis Vasquez, Terrence Ross, and James Johnson, are the four most likely candidates to take over DeRozan’s minutes. As you can see in the chart below, Williams draws fouls at a slightly lower rate than DeRozan and at a slightly higher rate than Lowry, but at a much higher rate than Vasquez, Ross or J. Johnson (referred to as J. Johnson because of Amir Johnson, the Raptors announcers call Amir “Amir”).
stats courtesy of nba.com/stats
For the Raptors, these four aforementioned players (J.
Johnson, Williams, Vasquez, and Ross) are all excellent free throw shooters at
75.0%, 83.8%, 90.0%, 94.1% respectively. Williams needs to continue to draw
fouls at the same rate and not wear himself out, which could lead to diminishing returns
in increased minutes. Vasquez and Ross should look to try and draw contact more
than they have (especially Ross, who has the athleticism to do so on pull-up
jumpers) in order to get what, for this group, amounts to a very high
percentage shot in free throws. Per the SportVU data, DeRozan drives a lot and these other four players don't, so this may be easier said than done as far as increasing fouls drawn rate, but if any one of these players is going to be able to drive to the hoop more, look for it to be Ross.
If this concept of being able to draw defenders into foul
situations is important to Casey, look
for Williams to get an extra 12-15 minutes per game.
Metric 2: Net
Turnover Margin
Raptors Rank: 2nd in
league at +5.7 turnovers forced versus turnovers committed (17.6 to 11.9)
DeRozan Stats: Averages 1.5 steals
per 36 minutes, which is third on the team, and puts him in the top 1/5th
of the league in this category for those who have played over 150 minutes.
However, he averages 2.1 turnovers per 36 minutes.
Synopsis: This is a modified version
of one of Oliver’s four factors – he looks at turnovers committed rather than
forced. Interestingly, this is an area where Raptors could potentially be
helped by DeRozan’s absence. Out of the four players in contention to get more
minutes, there are three thus far who have averaged an equal or greater number
of steals than turnovers per 36 minutes. They are highlighted in grey in the
chart below:
Name
|
Steals
per 36 min
|
Turnovers
per 36 minutes
|
J. Johnson
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
L.
Williams
|
2.6
|
1.8
|
G. Vasquez
|
1.2
|
2.4
|
T. Ross
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
D. DeRozan
|
1.5
|
2.1
|
While these stats can diminish with increased playing
time (for example, as you play more minutes, you get tired, lag on defense and
force fewer turnovers – although by that logic the defender while you are on
offense might be in the same boat, thus cutting down a players turnovers
committed), this is an encouraging sign for the Raptors. The hallmarks of any
Dwayne Casey coached team is defensive intensity (I
think he mentioned this twelve times in his introductory press conference),
and so it’s not entirely surprising that there are lots of guards on this team
who can force turnovers while still protecting the ball on offense – especially
Williams, who is incredibly good at playing
the passing lanes and forcing turnovers that lead to fast break points.
Based on all this
information, I expect the Raptors to continue to do well in this area even in
DeRozan’s absence.
Metric 3: 2nd
Half Point Differential
Raptors Rank: 1st in
league with a second half +/- of +7.4 per game (next closest is Portland at
+6.0)
DeRozan Stats: DeRozan is on the
court for five of the most six common lineups that the Raptors use in the 2nd
half. On an individual level, his second half +/- of +5.9 per game ranks him
fourth in the league for those playing over 150 minutes, and first on his team
(next closest is Lou Williams at 4.8, then Patterson and Lowry at 4.6).
Synopsis: In watching this team,
they quite often take a close game at halftime and turn it in their favor in
the third quarter. And the statistics back it up – the Raptors are 11-0 in games
in which they lead after three quarters, and have the second largest delta in
point differential between halftime and the end of the third quarter. The chart
below compares them in this area to other top W/L teams
Team (differential rank)
|
Halftime +/-
|
End of Third Quarter +/-
|
Delta from Halftime +/- to end
of Third Quarter +/-
|
Warriors (1st)
|
7.4
|
12.1
|
+ 4.7
|
Raptors (2nd)
|
3.2
|
6.9
|
+ 3.7
|
Grizzlies (4th)
|
4.4
|
8
|
+ 3.6
|
Blazers (5th)
|
1.6
|
4.9
|
+ 3.3
|
Wizards (7th)
|
0.2
|
2.5
|
+ 2.3
|
Spurs (9th)
|
2.7
|
4.1
|
+ 1.4
|
With this in mind, I decided to look at frequently used
second half lineups – (5 of 6 contained DeRozan) and then for those five
lineups, I looked at other Raptors lineups that featured the four players in
the lineup who were not DeRozan, with a fifth player in his place, to see how
that lineup fared. This turned out to be a less than fruitful exercise, as you
can see from the data below there is only a small sample size to work with, but
the +/- results aren’t horrendous, either:
Lineups
|
GP
|
MIN
|
+/-
|
Similar lineup sans DeRozan
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Johnson,Amir -
Lowry,Kyle - Ross,Terrence - Valanciunas,Jonas
|
13
|
6
|
1.0
|
None
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Hansbrough,Tyler -
Lowry,Kyle - Patterson,Patrick - Ross,Terrence
|
3
|
5.5
|
4.7
|
Same lineup with G. Vasquez
instead of DeRozan - 2 gp, 1.4 mpg, +/- of 0
Same lineup with J. Johnson instead of DeRozan - 1 gp, 0.5 mpg, +/- of 0 |
DeRozan,DeMar - Lowry,Kyle -
Patterson,Patrick - Valanciunas,Jonas - Williams,Lou
|
2
|
4.9
|
6.0
|
Same lineup with T. Ross instead
of DeRozan - 3 gp, 4.3 mpg, +/- of -1
Same lineup with G. Vasquez instead of DeRozan - 1 gp, 2 mpg, +/- of +4 Same lineup with J. Johnson instead of DeRozan - 1 gp, 1.1 mpg, +/- of +4 |
Hansbrough,Tyler - Johnson,James -
Patterson,Patrick - Vasquez,Greivis - Williams,Lou
|
8
|
4.8
|
2.4
|
Lineup does not include DeRozan
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Lowry,Kyle -
Patterson,Patrick - Ross,Terrence - Valanciunas,Jonas
|
4
|
4.2
|
0.0
|
Same lineup with L. Williams
instead of DeRozan - 3 gp, 4.3 mpg, +/- of -1 (same as lineup above)
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Johnson,Amir - Lowry,Kyle
- Patterson,Patrick - Ross,Terrence
|
6
|
2.7
|
1.3
|
Same lineup with L. Williams
instead of DeRozan - 1 gp, 3.1 mpg, +/- of +1
Same lineup with L. Williams instead of DeRozan - 1 gp, 0.6 mpg, +/- of -2 |
I made another attempt at this by looking at similar
non-DeRozan lineups from a +/- perspective
Lineups
|
GP
|
MIN
|
+/-
|
Lineups that do not include
DeRozan but have simliar +/-
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Johnson,Amir -
Lowry,Kyle - Ross,Terrence - Valanciunas,Jonas
|
13
|
6
|
1
|
Johnson, James - Vasquez, Greivis
- Patterson,Patrick - Valanciunas,Jonas - Williams,Lou
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Hansbrough,Tyler -
Lowry,Kyle - Patterson,Patrick - Ross,Terrence
|
3
|
5.5
|
4.7
|
Hansbrough,Tyler - Johnson,James -
Patterson,Patrick - Vasquez,Greivis - Williams,Lou
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Lowry,Kyle -
Patterson,Patrick - Valanciunas,Jonas - Williams,Lou
|
2
|
4.9
|
6
|
Hayes, Chuck - Johnson,James -
Lowry, Kyle - Vasquez,Greivis - Williams,Lou
|
Hansbrough,Tyler - Johnson,James -
Patterson,Patrick - Vasquez,Greivis - Williams,Lou
|
8
|
4.8
|
2.4
|
Lineup does not include DeRozan
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Lowry,Kyle -
Patterson,Patrick - Ross,Terrence - Valanciunas,Jonas
|
4
|
4.2
|
0
|
Ross,Terrence - Johnson,James -
Lowry, Kyle - Patterson,Patrick - Williams,Lou
|
DeRozan,DeMar - Johnson,Amir -
Lowry,Kyle - Patterson,Patrick - Ross,Terrence
|
6
|
2.7
|
1.3
|
Hansbrough,Tyler -
Patterson,Patrick - Lowry, Kyle - Vasquez,Greivis - Ross,Terrence
|
This exercise proved a bit more useful. While the sample
size is small, there are still lineups that can generate similar statistics to
the ones that DeRozan played in in the second half.
DeRozan is young and spry and can play aggressively in
the second half without seemingly wearing out. I think this is where Terrence
Ross, as a young athletic player, will need to turn on the jets. This will also
give him an opportunity, in this his third year, to have a mini “breakout”.
He’s shown he’s capable of big performances with his 51 point game last year. Right now Ross is averaging 11.6 minutes
per game in the second half, I’d look for that to jump closer to 17-18 minutes
in DeRozan’s absence.
Metric 4: 3 PT Shot
Defense
Raptors Rank: Opponents have 18th worst shooting percentage (37.7%) from 15+
feet, and Toronto holds teams to roughly 0.3% lower on these shots than those
teams would normally have (note – this one I had to calculate by hand,
NBA.com/stats doesn’t let you look at the latter, I think)
DeRozan Stats: DeRozan is second on
the team – opponents shoot 5.4% worse from 3 point range when he is defending
him than they normally would. Williams is outstanding in this area at -10.2%
(for perspectives sake, Tony Allen, a noted defensive stopper, is at -7.8% in
this area).
Player
|
Defensive
differential on shots from 15+ Feet
(negative
is better - it means the player is holding the shooter to a lower percentage
|
Williams
|
-10.2%
|
DeRozan
|
-5.4%
|
J.
Johnson
|
-3.1%
|
Vasquez
|
-2.1%
|
Ross
|
1.3%
|
NBA doesn’t provide the ability for me to rank each
player side by side, I have to look at each team’s individual ratings, but this
could be an area where the Raptors could go slightly +/- in either direction
depending on who gets those minutes. For example, DeRozan averages 4.2 field
goal attempts/game and 1.3 field goals made / game where the player he is
guarding shoots from 15+ feet, a shooting percentage of 1.3/4.2 = 31.0%. This
means that those players normally will make 31.0% + 5.4% = 36.4%., or 1.5 field
goals made / game from 15+ feet.
If we re-distribute DeRozan’s defense attempts evenly amongst Williams, J. Johnson, Vasquez and Ross, and create a weighted average based on those players field goal differentials on shots from 15+ feet, opponents would shoot roughly 32.2%, compared to 31.0% when DeRozan was defending, which equates to about one extra field goal for opponents every 20 games or so. If these metrics hold, it is safe to assume that Toronto’s shot defense will not be affected
Conclusion: All
told, there are certain other intangible factors when a key player goes down
that are hard to measure (leadership, drive, etc.). Yet the stats don’t
(usually) lie, and from looking at these metrics above, I predict that the
Raptors will continue their winning ways and that probably out of the 33
minutes per game now available in DeRozan's absence, look for about 16-18 to go to Williams,
with the rest distributed evenly amongst Vasquez, Ross and J. Johnson.
Now, as promised, the answer to the trivia question at the beginning of the article: Other
than DeMar DeRozan, who is the only NBA player whose full first and last names
(meaning no acronym names like K.J. McDaniels)
each have two capital letters in them? Answer: JaVale McGee
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