The busts of the busts

The majority of articles on the interwebs that focus on draft “busts” tend to focus exclusively on lottery picks. While I do think there is some merit to analyzing draft picks via that method – it often leads to interesting lists of “who could have been drafted in this spot” – this methodology of analyzing “busts” often ignores the fact that -

a)  Some of these players did not, in fact, have horrible careers – they just were not as good as the players drafted after them

• Samaki Walker, for example, was drafted 9^th in 1996, four spots ahead of Kobe Bryant and six spots ahead of Steve Nash and happens to pop up on a lot of “bust” lists. That said, he did not have what I would consider to be awful career numbers – he played 10 seasons in the NBA, averaged 5.3 pts and 4.7 rbs, and Phil Jackson, someone who knows a thing or two about basketball, thought that Walker was capable enough to start 63 games on his 2001-02 Lakers team, which went 58-24 and swept the Nets in the NBA finals.

b)  You can be a bust whilst not being a lottery pick

• Obviously a team that has a top-14 pick does not want to see that player under-perform, but first round picks are (in 99% of cases) offered guaranteed, two season contracts, and thus a 16th pick that has a sub-par career (Troy Bell - see below) should be considered alongside players such as Robert Swift (12th in 2004) and Julian Wright (13th in 2007), both of whom traditionally show up on "bust" lists.

With this in mind, I perused Basketball Reference to find some of the worst first round picks in history in terms of absolute NBA performance. For NBA fans, this is quite an interesting case study into the reasons why players do not pan out in the NBA – lack of true position, lack of NBA skills, injuries, mental health issues, substance abuse, poor attitude, lack of opportunity – in many cases a combination of two or more of those factors.

In keeping with the analytical theme of this blog, this post consists of all lottery-era first round picks who played both under 20 career games and under 150 career minutes in the NBA – this puts these players in the bottom 1% of lottery-era first round picks in both categories.

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Troy Bell – PG, Boston College

Draft:  16^th overall in 2003 by Boston Celtics

NBA Stats: 6 games played, 34 minutes played, 11 points

Why he was a first round pick: Troy Bell had a fantastic four year career at Boston College, scoring a (still standing) school record 2,632 points (21.6 ppg) – to give you some perspective, Reggie Jackson, the current starting guard for the Thunder, went to BC and never averaged more than 18.2 ppg in a season. Looking at the stats – Bell was adept and driving to the lane and drawing fouls – he is 7^th all time in free throws made, and converted at an extremely efficient 86.8% clip (only behind Bill Bradley among players in Top-25 in free throws made in FT %).

What happened: Despite being lightning fast and super athletic, he was not a pass first point guard and 6’1’’ volume scorers who are not named Allen Iverson and who have injury problems do not tend to have long, prosperous NBA careers.

Fun Fact: Bell attempted to become a boxer. He also made a NSFW music video

Royce White – SF, Iowa State

Draft:  16^th overall in 2012 by Houston Rockets, traded to 76ers and signed by Kings before playing a game

NBA Stats: 3 games played, 9 minutes played, 0 points

Why he was a first round pick: White, who had well documented issues with anxiety and obsessive compulsive disorder, started his career at Minnesota but was kicked off the team for disciplinary reasons before ever playing a game. He transferred to Iowa State, where he led the team in all five major categories (points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks) during his only season in Ames. While his anxiety issues made him untouchable from a draft perspective for many teams, the fact that he could play all five positions made him too good to pass up for the Rockets – who took him with the 16^th pick.

What happened: White’s anxiety, which led to a fear of flying, was too much for him, and the Rockets, to overcome. He wanted the Rockets to handle his anxiety disorder differently, and eventually left the team – refusing multiple assignments to the D-League in the process. Eventually the Rockets traded him to the 76ers, who waived him before the 2013-14 season. He had two 10-day contracts with the Kings later in the season, which is when his 3 games were played.

Fun Fact: The prolific Tweeter (he has 10,400 tweets) has three times as many Twitter followers as Bradley Beal. Like Troy Bell earlier in this list, he also dabbles in music.

Ronnie Murphy – SF, Jacksonville

Draft:  17^h overall in 1987 by Portland Trail Blazers

NBA Stats: 18 games played, 89 minutes played, 36 points, 14 fouls, 8 turnovers

Why he was a first round pick: Murphy had a great senior season at Jacksonville – posting 22 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. An exciting and explosive athlete with an NBA ready body who had somewhat questionable shot selection, the announcers of the 1987 NBA Draft seemed excited about his prospects.

What happened: Knicks fans were ecstatic with this pick because they had the 18^th pick and this allowed them to take hometown kid Mark Jackson from St. John’s (you can hear them chanting “We want Mark!” right after Murphy was drafted). Sadly, this is the most notable thing about Murphy’s NBA career. He suffered a stress fracture in his right foot during the preseason and the Trail Blazers released him shortly into his second season after becoming frustrated with his lack of effort and inability to stay conditioned.

Fun Fact: Was an assistant coach at Stevenson (DIII) for a while, that’s all I can find.

Mirsad Turkcan – PF, Yugoslavia/Turkey

Draft:  17^th overall in 1998 by Houston Rockets, traded to 76ers and then Knicks before playing a game

NBA Stats: 17 games played, 90 minutes played, 33 points, 33 rebounds

Why he was a first round pick: Turkcan left Serbia for Turkey due to the war in the early 1990s and his basketball career blossomed. While in Istanbul, he won two Turkish
league championships with Efes Pilsen and led the league in rebounding in his final season. He played with the Turkish senior national team at Eurobasket as a 19 year old and averaged 8.3 points and 7.5 rebounds.

What happened: The first Turkish player drafted into the NBA, his draft rights were traded to the 76ers and then the Knicks, where he lasted for half of the 1999-2000 season before he was released – primarily due to attitude issues associated with going from being “the guy” in Europe to being a bench player on a high performing Knicks team. The Bucks picked him up for the rest of that season.

Fun Fact: His wife is the 2005 Miss Serbia and Montenegro, and his sister is a famous pop singer in Europe.

Luther Wright – C, Seton Hall

Wright is one of the few basketball players in NBA history
who is bigger than Shaq

Draft:  18^th overall in 1993 by Utah Jazz

NBA Stats: 15 games played, 92 minutes played, 19 points, 21 fouls

Why he was a first round pick: Similar to Podkolzin later on this list, dudes who are 7’2’’, 270 lbs, and can chew gum and walk in a straight line do not come around too often. Wright had a rough upbringing in various New Jersey cities outside of NYC, and in scouring old NY Times articles, was not considered by coaches to be the most astute and focused of athletes (some adjectives used to describe him are “immature”, “lazy”, “irresponsible”). It was later discovered that Wright was suffering from both Attention Deficit Disorder and manic depression. Seton Hall performed well during Wright’s two playing years at the school (he redshirted his first year to get academically eligible), winning the Big East regular season title each season and winning the Big East tournament in 1992-93. Wright was not as dominant as coaches felt he should have been, but he did block 76 shots that season and for his career shot over 50% from the field. He declared for the draft, and Utah saw enough potential in him to draft him in the hopes he could serve as a formidable successor to 7’4’’ aging/retiring big man Mark Eaton.

The good news is that Wright appears to have gotten
his life back on track

What happened: Wright’s off-the-court issues were too much to overcome. He ended up in a mental institution shortly after his rookie season ended and that was the end of his basketball career as he was subsequently waived by the Jazz. Wright had a rough decade after that, winding up homeless, and having some toes amputated. The good news is that it appears Wright has gotten his life back on track, as he is supposedly both working and taking classes at Seton Hall.

Fun Fact: Yet another person on this list with musical talents. Supposedly was a great DJ in his college days, and was inducted into something called the Hip Hop Junky Hall of Fame

Paul Grant – C, Wisconsin

Draft:  20^th overall in 1997 by Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA Stats: 16 games played, 111 minutes played, 29 points, 21 fouls, 9 turnovers

Why he was a first round pick: Had a breakout senior season at Wisconsin after transferring there following three pedestrian years at Boston College. In his one season with the Badgers he averaged 12.5 points per game and shot 70%+ from the FT line on his way to being an All-Big Ten honorable mention selection. The Timberwolves, desiring a young big on a team that included Stephon Marbury and Kevin Garnett, decided to take a flyer on the late-blooming big man.

What happened:  Missed his entire first season with a foot injury. Played four games with the Timberwolves before being traded to Bucks, where he played two games and was released. He resurfaced five seasons later with 1.8 ten-day contracts with the Jazz, which accounted for 63% of his NBA games played.

Fun Fact: Is currently an assistant basketball coach at MIT

Fab Melo – C, Syracuse

Draft: 20^th overall in 2012 by Boston Celtics

NBA Stats: 6 games played, 36 minutes played, 7 points, 7 fouls

Why he was a first round pick: The 7’0’’ Brazilian native had a decent sophomore season, averaging 7.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.9 blocks. However, right before the NCAA tournament, he was ruled ineligible due to poor academic performance, and declared for the NBA draft after the season ended.

I actually knew this was coming before it happened – a coworker of mine who was from Syracuse said that the word around town was that Melo spoke English at an elementary school level. I guess on the one hand it’s not Melo’s fault that Syracuse admitted him – they shouldn’t be letting in players who can’t perform academically, let alone ones who are nowhere near fluent in English – they in effect set him up for failure. So I can’t feel too bad for them for not having him in the NCAA tournament, in which the Orange were a 1 seed.  

What happened: Melo started off his career by breaking a folding chair. Then, in a truly bizarre incident, he banged his head on a hotel doorframe while on a D-League assignment and suffered a concussion so severe that it required the Celtics to actually recall him from the assignment so that he could get the appropriate medical treatment with the parent club. He had tools (size, timing), and actually played decently well during his D-League stints that year, setting a D-League record with 14 blocks in a game, but did not have the overall basketball skillset required to stick on an NBA roster.

Fun Fact: I think the broken chair and hitting head on doorframe were fun fact enough for one article… although the story of why Robert Sacre does not have a jersey number in the video below is somewhat interesting

Craig Brackins – SF/PF, Iowa State

Draft:  21^st overall in 2010 by Oklahoma City Thunder, traded to NOLA then 76ers before season started

NBA Stats: 17 games played, 1 game started, 121 minutes played, 30 points

Why he was a first round pick: A search for the last name “Brackins” in the Iowa State basketball record book returns 59 results – he is Top-15 all-time in season and career coring (the latter despite only playing three seasons), rebounds in a season, rebounds per game, blocks in a season – and had a 42 point, 14 rebound game against a Kansas Jayhawk team that included Cole Aldrich, the Morris twins, Tyshawn Taylor, Sherron Collins (all of whom play/played in the NBA). At 6’10’’ with a 7’1’’ wingspan and a 35 inch vertical, his ability to influence the game both offensively and defensively was matched by very few in the 2010 draft.

What happened: Being stuck in between positions led to his demise. A bit too soft (both physically and mentally) to bang as a PF in the league, and not a good enough 3 point shooter to make it as a SF, he fizzled out of the NBA after two seasons with the 76ers

Fun Fact: His 42 points game against Kansas was the most points scored against the Jayhawks in a Big 12 game, the previous record was held bythis guy…

Pavel Podkolzin – C, Russia

Draft:  21^st overall in 2004 by Utah Jazz, traded immediately to the Mavericks

NBA Stats: 6 games played, 28 minutes played, 4 points (all on free throws)

For comparisons sake, this is Pavel being guarded by 6' Dan Dickau

Why he was a first round pick: Because he was 7’5’’ and 303 lbs, and people who are taller than trees do not usually grow on them. Teams with late first round picks are able to gamble a bit with their picks because (a) usually teams with late round picks already have well put together roster prior to the draft and (b) the salary slot for late first round picks is relatively low. This means that best case you wind up with an great value player for a few years until they are eligible to negotiate a new contract, and worst case you wind up with a player who may not contribute but will not cost an arm and a leg. The Mavericks took a flyer here and it did not work out.

Podkolzin came out of nowhere in 2003 (not sure how a 7’5’’ behemonth comes out of nowhere) and was touted at the time as a possible top-5 pick, which is impressive considering that the 2003 draft boasted several future Hall-of-Famers. However, a pituitary gland disorder discovered during pre-draft physicals caused him to pull out of that draft and re-enter in 2004. His statistics in Europe (Italy) never stood out as anything special, but he impressed in individual workouts with his mobility (often the key issue in the NBA for those 7’ or taller), which gave teams hope that they could mold him into an NBA player.

What happened:  Podkolzin, simply put, did not develop the basketball skills to play in the NBA. The mobility that he showed during his initial workouts was sapped by a series of knee injuries, and the Mavs decided to cut ties with him after just two seasons.

Fun Fact: Here is Podkolzin making a three pointer!  Some scouts thought he could be drafted ahead of Wade, Melo, Bosh…

Dontae’ Jones – SF/PF, Mississippi State

From Kenny Rogers Roasters to
SEC Tournament MVP...

Draft:  21^st overall in 1996 by New York Knicks, traded to Boston Celtics in 1997 before playing a game

NBA Stats: 15 games played, 91 minutes played, 41 points, 12 fouls, 11 turnovers

Why he was a first round pick: Jones had a fascinating path to being a first round draft pick. He dropped out of high school and worked at a Kenny Rogers Roasters, at which point he was spotted playing pick-up ball and ended up at a Junior College. Jones then transferred to Mississippi State, where teamed with fellow first round pick Erick Dampier for one season to lead the bulldogs to an SEC championship (over eventual national champion Kentucky – a team that featured nine future NBA players) and a Final Four appearance. He actually outscored Dampier, who went on to have a decade long NBA career, during that 1995-96 season and was named MVP of both the SEC tournament and regional MVP during March Madness. Athletic enough with a good enough 3 pt shot to play SF, but with the body to play PF if needed, Jones had great prospects.  Here’s a great clip from that SEC championship game.

... to Mr. 615, with a stop on the Celtics in-between

What happened: Jones had surgery on his left foot right after the draft and missed the entire 1996-97 season. He was traded during the 1997 offseason to the Celtics, and got some playing time in the first few games of the season, but Rick Pitino clearly was not impressed enough (or was taking out his anger at losing 1996 SEC Championship game to Jones’ Bulldogs – Pitino coached UK in that game)  to make Jones part of his rotation. Coupled with some off the court issues (an arrest and changing agents three times) – Jones NBA career only lasted one playing season. According to basketball reference’s salary data, Jones made just under $2.5 MM in his NBA career…

Fun Fact: The fourth person on this list to have forged a music career, known as Mr. 615

Geert Hammink – C, LSU

Draft:  26^th overall in 1993 by Orlando Magic

NBA Stats: 8 games played, 27 minutes played, 14 points

The only picture ever taken of
Geert Hammink in an NBA game

Why he was a first round pick: Yet another player from the 1993 draft, Hammink, from The Netherlands, followed in the extremely large footsteps of Shaquille O’Neal in both college (at LSU) and in the pros (with Orlando Magic). Stuck behind Shaq for two years at LSU, once the Big Diesel left college for the NBA, Hammink had a great senior year, averaging 15.7 points and 10.5 rebounds. The Magic drafted him with hopes that he could once again prove a formidable backup for Shaq-Fu. He also is the only player on this list who has an IMDB page as he had a small role in the movie “Blue Chips” (also likely due to association with Shaq).

What happened: He spent the majority of his first season in Italy, playing one game for the Magic at the tail end of the 1993-94 season. He was mostly inactive during the 1994-95 season, playing in just one game, and strutted his stuff for three during 1995-96 before being waived. Afterwards, he signed two ten day contracts with the Warriors – playing in both a 26 point loss and a 12 point loss. The Warriors brass saw enough during those games to sign him for the rest of the season.

Fun Fact: Went the Jerry McGuire route and started his own agency

Ndudi Ebi – SF, High School

Draft:  26^h overall in 2003 by Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA Stats: 19 games played, 86 minutes played, 30 points, 13 fouls, 46.2% free throw shooter

Why he was a first round pick: Ebi (6’9’’ and 200 lbs) was a skinny, athletic high school mega star in an era when being a skinny, athletic high school mega star got you drafted in the hopes that you would develop into the next Kevin Garnett or Jermaine O’Neal.

What happened: Ebi was drafted to a Timberwolves team in “win now” mode and as a result barely saw the floor. Before his third season, the Timberwolves tried to assign him to the D-League, which at the time was only an option for players with less than two years of experience. While the Timberwolves argued that, in the figurative sense, Ebi, with all of 86 minutes played, was not truly a two year veteran, they were denied the waiver and he was released just before his third season started.

Fun Fact: Was friends with Kirby Puckett

Leon Smith – PF, High School

Draft:  29^h overall in 1999 by San Antonio Spurs, traded to Mavericks on draft night

NBA Stats: 15 games played, 104 minutes played, 33 points, 13 fouls

Why he was a first round pick: Smith, of a very rough upbringing in Chicago, dominated the famed Chicago Public School league his senior season – averaging 25.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 6.0 block per game. The Mavericks drafted him despite not having met him or worked him out – but were intrigued by his 6’10’’ frame and 7’5’’ wingspan.

What happened: Things went wrong for Smith starting with his first practice, which he got kicked out of for talking back to Donnie Nelson, and everything went downhill from there. He was effectively asked to stay away from the team and two weeks into the season attempted to commit suicide by ingesting 250 aspirin tablets. He was then arrested twice in two days for threatening an ex-girlfriend in Chicago. Smith never actually played for the Mavericks, and eventually was signed by Atlanta in 2002 to a mid-season ten day contract, which was extended for the rest of the season. He signed a 10 day contract with Seattle in 2004.

Fun Fact: Unfortunately, there are not a lot of fun facts in the saga that is Leon Smith’s life

The Lottery-Era First Round Picks Who Never Played a Minute in the NBA

Player, Year, Pick, Team, From	Reason for not playing in the NBA
Len Bias, 1986, 2nd Overall, Boston Celtics, Maryland	Died of a cocaine overdose two days after the draft
Ken Barlow, 1986, 23rd Overall, Los Angeles Lakers, Notre Dame	Was offered more to play in Italy than for Atlanta (whom he was traded to by the Lakers). Never came back to NBA.
Shaun Vandiver, 1991, 25th Overall, Golden State Warriors, Colorado	Was offered more to play in Italy than for Golden State. Never came back to NBA.
Frederic Weis, 1999, 15th Overall, New York Knicks, France	In large part, because he got jumped over by Vince Carter…
Fran Vazquez, 2005, 11th Overall, Orlando Magic, Spain	In large part, his girlfriend…
Petteri Koponen, 2007, 30th Overall, Philadelphia 76ers, Finland (rights owned by Dallas Mavericks)	Still wants to make the NBA and is looking to make the jump once his contract in Russia ends after the 2014-15 season. Has performed well in Europe, and as a pass first point guard who has athleticism to slash, would do great on a team like the Spurs or Knicks.
Livio Jean-Charles, 2013, 28th Overall, San Antonio Spurs, France	Still developing overseas, likely will make the NBA in the 2016-17 season. Spurs have an assistant coach working full-time with him overseas and he plays for the team part-owned by Tony Parker.