Who will win the 3 Point Shootout?

The 3 Point Shootout during All-Star weekend is one of the most star-studded in recent memory. While shooting wide-open off a rack is much different than shooting in a game, I tried as best I could to filter down and analyze the shot tracking data in a way that could potentially predict who will have the best probability of wining the 3 Point Shootout.

Method of analysis:

• Looked at shooting percentage on three pointers for individual player by region
• Below the break regions on each side of court is the corner 3 rack
• Region in the top of the 3 point circle plus/minus 10 feet from the center of the court is the center rack
• Remaining region on either side of court are the elbow 3 racks
• Only included standard jump shots (no running shots, fade-away shots, turnaround jumpers)
• No heaves (max distance of shot is 30 feet)
• Nearest defender at least six feet away 
• Obviously, only 3 point shots

Shooting Percentages Per Rack (based on above criteria)
(#) = number of 3pt attempts meeting above criteria

Row Labels	Center	Left Corner	Left Elbow	Right Corner	Right Elbow
James Harden (40)	44.4%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%	37.5%
JJ Redick (90)	33.3%	57.1%	44.0%	55.0%	40.0%
Klay Thompson (69)	30.0%	30.0%	50.0%	41.7%	41.2%
Kyle Korver (63)	75.0%	70.0%	36.4%	60.0%	56.0%
Kyrie Irving (49)	64.3%	50.0%	27.3%	22.2%	54.5%
Marco Belinelli (36)	40.0%	20.0%	25.0%	37.5%	20.0%
Stephen Curry (93)	33.3%	50.0%	40.9%	80.0%	15.4%
Wesley Matthews (114)	38.1%	61.1%	46.7%	42.9%	45.8%

The rules for the contest are as follows:

• Each rack has five balls
• For four of the five racks, each made shot is worth 1 point, except for the last (money) ball, which is worth 2 points, for a total of 6 possible points per rack
• On one rack of the players choosing, each made shot is worth 2 points, for a total of 10 possible points
• This means the maximum possible score is 34 points (6 x 4 + 10)

For each player, the rack in which each shot would be worth 2 points is based on the shooting percentages from the table above (this rack is bolded below)

Points Per Rack

Row Labels	Center	Left Corner	Left Elbow	Right Corner	Right Elbow	Total
Kyle Korver	7.5	4.2	2.2	3.6	3.4	20.8
Wesley Matthews	2.3	6.1	2.8	2.6	2.8	16.5
Stephen Curry	2.0	3.0	2.5	8.0	0.9	16.4
JJ Redick	2.0	5.7	2.6	3.3	2.4	16.1
Kyrie Irving	6.4	3.0	1.6	1.3	3.3	15.7
Klay Thompson	1.8	1.8	5.0	2.5	2.5	13.6
James Harden	2.7	0.0	1.5	5.0	2.3	11.4
Marco Belinelli	4.0	1.2	1.5	2.3	1.2	10.2

In case you were curious, here are the Vegas odds (in rank order):

1) Curry @ 13/4

2) Korver @ 15/4

3) Thompson @ 4/1

T-4) Irving @ 6/1

T-4) Redick @ 6/1

T-6) Matthews @ 7/1

T-6) Belinelli @ 7/1

8) Harden @ 8/1