Addition by Subtraction: Who are these Pistons?

by Alex Pressman 

(editor's note: this is the first contributing post on this site. If you would like to contribute a post or have an idea, please e-mail me at egoodman36@gmail.com)

The Pistons pulled one of the more surprising moves of the NBA season on December 21 back by cutting Josh Smith. Not a trade. Not a buyout. Stan Van Gundy, the Pistons joint coach/president of basketball operations, decided that Detroit was better off paying Smith's full salary for him not to be there.

Seven games into this decision, Van Gundy looks like the personnel mastermind we remember from his days in Orlando. The Pistons have not lost a game since off-loading Smith (they were 5-23 before the trade).

I have something to admit - up until the beginning of this season, I was a believer in the Josh Smith reclamation project. When Detroit added him, I thought he was the final piece in the formation of the most dominant front court in basketball. Added into the highly successful "Build around the paint with Drummond and Monroe" experiment - successful by the eye test, that is - I decided that the team would never miss another rebound, dominating a facet of the game that I personally hold in the highest regard. But I was wrong. I was wrong because like many people out there, I was wearing the Josh Smith brand Rose-Colored Glasses™, which allow me to see into 2005 - and only let you look up, at Smith's infinitely high ceiling.

In 2005, when Smith was a rookie with Atlanta, he was named to the All-Rookie second team and won the slam dunk contest. He was a 3-4 hybrid, but wasn't a tweener like so many with that label. He was too big for the 3's to handle and too fast for the 4's to keep up with. I expected big things, as did many. Getting into the fall of Josh Smith's career and his wasted talent could be a whole article in itself, but suffice it to say he never lived up to that potential. For now, let's just put on those glasses and bask in what could have been for two minutes.
 
As I mentioned, the Pistons have won seven straight since dropping Smith. And these aren't just games against laughable opponents, the last three have come against the talented but underachieving Kings, and a pair of road wins against Western Conference powerhouses in Dallas and San Antonio. So what's going on?

I looked at 10 key stats to see where the improvements are coming from -

·         Stats 1-2: Offensive and Defensive Rating (ORtg/DRtg), which measures the number of points per 100 possessions (or points allowed in the case of DRtg), a generally solid measure of offensive or defensive efficiency.

·         Stats 3-10: "Offense/Defense Four Factors" advanced metrics that are considered by many analysts to be the most important to a team's overall success. These include:

o   Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - Measures FG% while accounting for the increased value of the 3-pointer.

o   Turnover Ratio - Number of turnovers per 100 possessions.

o   Offensive Rebound Percentage (OREB%) - Percentage of available offensive rebounds a team pulls down.

o   Free Throw Attempt Rate (FTAr) – Free throw attempts per field goal attempt

o   The defensive versions of these follow the same logic on the opposite end of the floor, accounting for what offensive numbers the defense is allowing.

It's a small sample size of games since Smith was dropped, but the drastic difference in numbers, as well as the fact that Detroit improved in 9 of the 10 categories, is hard to attribute entirely to a hot streak

Statistic	Pistons Value (pre-Josh Smith trade)	Pistons Value (post-Josh Smith trade, as of 1/9/2015)	Percent change (note, sometimes a decrease is good, such as with turnover rate. Green = Improvement)
Offensive Rating (ORtg)	97.6	111.5	+ 14%
Defensive Rating (DRtg)	105.8	94.3	-11%
Offensive Four Factors
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)	45.8%	54.5%	+19%
Turnover Ratio	14.3	13.9	-3%
Offensive Rebound Percentage (OREB%)	26.9%	28.4%	+6%
Free-Throw Attempt Rate (FTAr)	0.274	0.226	-18%
Defensive Four Factors
Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)	50.8%	46.7%	-8%
Opponent Turnover Ratio	14.2	16.4	+15%
Opponent Offensive Rebound Percentage (OREB%)	25.1%	22.1%	-12%
Opponent Free-Throw Attempt Rate (FTAr)	0.263	0.259	-2%

That’s a lot of green. The Pistons were the third worst team in the NBA prior to the Josh Smith trade in terms of net-rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating), ahead of only the Timberwolves and 76ers. In the period since the trade, the Pistons are the second best team in the NBA in terms of net-rating, behind only the Golden State Warriors.

A large part of this comes down to the team's shot selection, notoriously one of Smith's biggest flaws. This shows up quantitatively in the team's eFG% (the most important of the “Four Factors”) which has risen meteorically during the winning streak. Unsurprising when you drop a guy putting up shots like these:


An offense that was effectively shooting 46% from the field is now shooting at nearly a 55% clip, which, since the trade, ranks as the third best in basketball behind a team led by two guys called the Super Splash Bros (Warriors) and the Phoenix Suns. And it isn’t just Smith not being around to put up bricks and air balls. His teammates are benefitting from the longer possessions and more open shots that those possessions lead to. In the past 7 games, for instance, Brandon Jennings is shooting 12% better from the field. Another Pistons centerpiece, Andre Drummond has matched that 12% improvement from the field as well. Make no mistake, the Pistons haven’t just gotten rid of a liability, they’ve boosted everyone else’s play as well.

Arguably the most interesting impact on the offensive end comes in the ability to draw fouls and convert free throws. This caught my attention because free throw attempt rate was the only statistic in which the Pistons have not improved since cutting Smith - dropping from a fairly pedestrian 17th in basketball to an actively poor 24th. However, upon some further digging, I found that prior to leaving the team, Smith was second on the team in FTA, behind only Greg Monroe. This is notable because although Monroe makes his free throws at an impressive 75%, Josh Smith only converts at a dismal 47% clip. So despite the fact that the team is getting to the line less, they're getting more points out of these possessions by avoiding Smith's troubles at the charity stripe. Case in point:

Much of the defensive success has come from simply forcing tougher shots from opponents, leading to an 8% decrease in opponent eFG, and ranking 6^th in the NBA since the trade (as opposed to 19^th pre-trade). They are also causing more turnovers, grabbing more defensive rebounds relative to defensive rebounding chances, and giving up fewer free throws per shot attempt. All in all, Detroit looks like a different team.

Moving forward on both sides, Detroit will obviously not continue to play like a championship caliber team. They have, however, seemingly taken a massive step in the right direction for their franchise. Stan Van Gundy has taken the reins of his team, and looks poised to continue cultivating his young talent without any locker room distractions or on-court laziness. Meanwhile for Smith, he's moved to greener pastures in Houston, a team in the thick of the title discussion. But if they don't want those pastures to quickly turn a very dead shade of brown, the Rockets had better hope that Smith hasn't been taking advice from another Smith who just changed addresses:


Who knows, maybe the rose-colored Josh Smith will show up. Let a guy dream, huh?