Sunday, January 18, 2015

Court Symmetry and Offensive Strategy:

One interesting thing I noticed when looking through various players’ shot charts that I created using data from the NBA’s SportVU player tracking cameras is that LaMarcus Aldridge takes a lot of shots from the left side of the court relative to the right:


LaMarcus Aldridge shot chart. Bigger circles indicate more shot attempts from that area

Regardless of whether it is preference or strategy as the reason for this many shots from one side of the court, opposing teams can use these tendencies in order to set their defensive schemes – for example, if a team favors the right side of the court, you can place your best defenders on that side of the zone. Over time, I would think that playing the odds like that can only help and not hurt.  It’s a bit like counting cards in black-jack.


In order to assess this phenomenon, I looked at the data on a league, team and player level (player analysis coming next week). An important metric that I will cite is the idea of an X-value. In terms of coordinate geometry, if the court is an (X,Y) plane, an X value of 0 is the center of the court, an X value of -25 (feet) is the far right sideline, and an X value of 25 (feet) is the far left sideline.

League:
As a league, there is a slight favor towards the right side of the court. The average x-axis value of the 95,419 field goals attempted between 10/28/14 and 1/13/15 is -.003 feet, which on the surface I thought indicated about an equal number of shots from the left and right side of the court. But what is interesting is that when you break it down into percentage of shots taken from each side of the court, it is a skewed towards the right:
FGA by Shot Location

Left
Center
Right
NBA (percentage)
40.7%
14.4%
44.9%
NBA (number)
38,845
13,762
42,812



Essentially we are dealing with a weighted average – in basketball terms what this means is that while there are more shots coming from the right side of the court than the left, the shots that are coming from the left side of the court are coming from further to the left than the shots from the right side of the court are to the right. And when we analyze the data further – it reveals this to be exactly the case:

Pull to Side by Shot Location

Left
Center
Right
Average X value by side
9.75 feet
0 feet
-8.85 feet

So the conclusion here is that teams tend to favor the right side of the court relative to the left, but take shots further from the center on the left side of the court than the right. To some extent, this makes sense to me – players like to drive with their dominant hand, which for most players is their right, and thus you see not only more shots from that side, but closer shots.

Team:
The data from the team level analysis shows that 22/30 teams favor their right relative to their left, some to an extreme degree – such as the Nuggets. The teams that favor their left on average more heavily favor that side than the teams that favor the right do in favoring the right side. Below is a table of the data, and below that are a few sample team shot charts to help visualize this skew:

Team
Left
Center
Right
Left/Right Delta
Favor
Denver Nuggets
35.83%
14.30%
49.87%
14.05%
Right
Dallas Mavericks
36.83%
14.89%
48.28%
11.46%
Right
Atlanta Hawks
37.28%
14.15%
48.57%
11.29%
Right
Brooklyn Nets
38.58%
12.34%
49.08%
10.50%
Right
San Antonio Spurs
38.98%
12.04%
48.98%
10.00%
Right
Washington Wizards
37.89%
14.99%
47.12%
9.22%
Right
New York Knicks
39.82%
11.28%
48.90%
9.08%
Right
Boston Celtics
38.18%
14.76%
47.06%
8.89%
Right
Miami Heat
40.61%
11.28%
48.11%
7.50%
Right
Indiana Pacers
40.70%
11.45%
47.84%
7.14%
Right
Utah Jazz
38.84%
15.18%
45.98%
7.14%
Right
Orlando Magic
38.94%
16.37%
44.69%
5.75%
Right
Memphis Grizzlies
40.06%
15.30%
44.64%
4.57%
Right
Phoenix Suns
41.58%
12.34%
46.09%
4.51%
Right
New Orleans Pelicans
40.98%
13.98%
45.04%
4.06%
Right
Golden State Warriors
40.72%
15.59%
43.69%
2.98%
Right
Chicago Bulls
42.67%
12.11%
45.22%
2.55%
Right
Charlotte Hornets
43.15%
11.33%
45.52%
2.36%
Right
Sacramento Kings
41.99%
13.85%
44.16%
2.17%
Right
Los Angeles Clippers
41.91%
14.15%
43.94%
2.03%
Right
Toronto Raptors
42.55%
12.88%
44.57%
2.03%
Right
Houston Rockets
41.89%
14.26%
43.85%
1.96%
Right
Los Angeles Lakers
43.24%
14.05%
42.71%
-0.53%
Left
Oklahoma City Thunder
42.54%
15.72%
41.74%
-0.80%
Left
Minnesota Timberwolves
42.29%
16.37%
41.34%
-0.95%
Left
Philadelphia 76ers
42.62%
16.09%
41.29%
-1.34%
Left
Cleveland Cavaliers
42.17%
18.13%
39.69%
-2.48%
Left
Detroit Pistons
40.60%
21.46%
37.94%
-2.66%
Left
Milwaukee Bucks
41.64%
20.41%
37.95%
-3.69%
Left
Portland Trail Blazers
46.03%
11.85%
42.11%
-3.92%
Left


Two opposite ends of the spectrum – Nuggets favor the right more than the left, Trail Blazers favor the left relative to the right, but with much less skew to the left than the Nuggets have to the right.
It’s a bit hard to tell, but for the Nuggets it appears that a fair amount of the skew towards the right comes in the paint in addition to the right elbow region. For the Blazers, the skew towards the left appears to be rooted in baseline shots and corner 3-pointers.

When you disaggregate the skew to each side by team, only three teams (Kings, Suns, Rockets) shoot close towards the sideline on the right than they do on the left.

Pull to Side by Shot Location
Team
Left
Right
Higher Absolute Value?
New Orleans Pelicans
8.81 Feet
-7.60 Feet
Left
Memphis Grizzlies
8.65 Feet
-7.85 Feet
Left
Philadelphia 76ers
8.88 Feet
-7.97 Feet
Left
Toronto Raptors
10.75 Feet
-8.08 Feet
Left
Minnesota Timberwolves
9.11 Feet
-8.14 Feet
Left
Oklahoma City Thunder
9.4 Feet
-8.16 Feet
Left
Chicago Bulls
9.11 Feet
-8.21 Feet
Left
Charlotte Hornets
9.26 Feet
-8.26 Feet
Left
Indiana Pacers
9.96 Feet
-8.27 Feet
Left
Boston Celtics
9.58 Feet
-8.33 Feet
Left
Brooklyn Nets
9.80 Feet
-8.36 Feet
Left
Sacramento Kings
8.32 Feet
-8.45 Feet
Right
Orlando Magic
8.65 Feet
-8.56 Feet
Left
Utah Jazz
9.41 Feet
-8.62 Feet
Left
Denver Nuggets
10.19 Feet
-8.71 Feet
Left
Dallas Mavericks
10.5 Feet
-8.71 Feet
Left
San Antonio Spurs
9.33 Feet
-8.72 Feet
Left
Washington Wizards
9.85 Feet
-8.92 Feet
Left
Atlanta Hawks
9.67 Feet
-9.1 Feet
Left
Milwaukee Bucks
10.41 Feet
-9.14 Feet
Left
Golden State Warriors
9.45 Feet
-9.15 Feet
Left
Los Angeles Lakers
9.38 Feet
-9.17 Feet
Left
Detroit Pistons
10.21 Feet
-9.6 Feet
Left
New York Knicks
10.69 Feet
-9.62 Feet
Left
Portland Trail Blazers
10.82 Feet
-9.64 Feet
Left
Miami Heat
10.94 Feet
-9.75 Feet
Left
Los Angeles Clippers
11.02 Feet
-9.8 Feet
Left
Cleveland Cavaliers
10.52 Feet
-9.85 Feet
Left
Phoenix Suns
9.65 Feet
-9.95 Feet
Right
Houston Rockets
9.96 Feet
-10.93 Feet
Right
New Orleans Pelicans
8.81 Feet
-7.6 Feet
Left


1 comment:

  1. How does the right handed left handed player ratio affect the data?

    ReplyDelete