Scouting the DeRozan-less Raptors

"We The North" (13-4) lost in a closely contested overtime game to the Lakers (4-13) last night by a score of 129-122.

The purpose of this particular article is to understand through analytics the structural differences in how they played in the absence of DerMar Derozan, who is out indefinitely with a torn groin muscle (ouch).

Before we get to any number crunching, I did want to point out one play that happened at the end of regulation that exposes perhaps a flaw in how the NBA positions officials at the end of games. The score was tied at 109 and the Lakers had the ball for the last shot. Kobe drove to the hoop and was blocked on a great defensive play / possibly fouled (depending on which fan base you ask) from Jonas Valanciunas. James Johnson (the only NBA player in the shot clock era born in Wyoming) came down with the rebound and Kyle Lowry frantically called for a timeout (see picture below) with what appeared to be approximately 1.5 seconds remaining. The officials missed Lowry's timeout call, the clock expired, and the game went into overtime, where the Raptors, as stated above, were not victorious. 

While I do not believe there needs to be replay, per se, the fact of the matter is that there needs to be a ref right under the basket when the shot clock is off. These refs are set up in a standard "three person mechanics" formation, but it may not work well in this type of scenario.

Ref 1 in the diagram above should have, in theory, been able to see the timeout call, but he was focused on the play at hand. Ref 3, in my opinion, should have been much closer to the basket .The only thing he gains from that positioning is that he can see whether a shot is a two vs. three pointer, but that is a reviewable call anyway.

Since the majority of these shots at or near the buzzer will end up with either (a) a made basket or (b) a rebound under the basket, with the rebounding team looking to possibly call a timeout, there is no reason to not have a referee stationed there to make the quick call.

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Now to the numbers:

I compared how the Raptors as a team played against the Lakers on 11/30/2014 to their average performance this season aside from that game. Yes, I am fully aware that comparing a one game sample to a sixteen game sample may seem odd. Regardless, what I found in actually digging deep into the number is that a number of insights could be gleaned about the impact (and in many cases, lack of impact) of DeRozan’s absence.

Team Metric	Season Average	11/30 vs. LAL	What does it mean?
1st Half / 2nd Half percentage of field goals attempted from 3-pt range	24.8% / 31.1%	22.9% / 37.5%	The Raptors currently rank 10th in the NBA in percentage of field goals taken from 3-pt range at 28.2%. At 32.7% (which was their percentage against the Lakers) if they were to continue this trend, they would move up to top-2 in the NBA (Rockets are in first by a mile at 43.9%). Because DeRozan takes such a small percentage of his shots from three-point range (6.2%) and Vasquez, Williams and Ross all attempt at least 40% of their shots from 3-pt range,  it is not entirely surprising that this metric increased for this most recent game. If you break this down further, the first half/second half splits are interesting (especially when taken with the next metric below about close range shots). Half Percent of FG from 3 PT % Points in the Paint 1st Half 22.9% 34 2nd Half 37.5% 18 This is an interesting tidbit for opposing defenses who are scouting the Raptors – The Raptors went inside early and often, scoring +12 more points in the paint than their team average in the first half this season. Ultimately, however, they found themselves down by 9 points at halftime, and shot their way back into the game by shooting a much high percentage of their shots from 3-pt range in the second half relative to their typical season statistics in this area. With players who can, and will, shoot the three-pointer now taking DeRozan’s minutes, this increase in 2nd half 3-pt field goals could be a strategy the Raptors employ when they are falling behind in games.
1st Half/ 2nd Half percent of FG attempted from < 10 feet	45% / 44%	58% / 37%	The Raptors had a 29% increase in field goals from inside of 10 feet as a percentage of total field goals in the first half against the Lakers than their first-half season average. This has been a trend for the Raptors over the past few games – Percentage of field goals taken from within 10 feet of the basket 1st Half Season Average 1st Half vs. PHX 1st Half vs. DAL 1st Half vs. LAL 45% 47% 51% 58% The Raptors have been more likely to get the ball to Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas on close-range shots in their three most recent contests. Field Goal Attempts taken from within 10 feet of the basket 1st half season average 1st Half vs. PHX 1st. Half vs. DAL 1st Half vs. LAL Valanciunas 4.3 7 1 7 A. Johnson 3.0 1 9 4    It’s definitely something for opposing teams to be aware of – against ATL, PHX, and LAL, the Raptors were making clear efforts to feed JV very early on in games (note: he is Top-10 amongst center in percentage of field goals that are unassisted at 42% and can take defenders off the dribble). It will be interesting to see moving forward if their first option migrates towards getting the ball inside first, and then, as noted in the section above, trying to shoot their way back into the game if the strategy of taking short range shots and shots is not resulting in leads.
Third Quarter / Second Half Point Differential	+3.9 / + 7.5	+8.0 / + 9.0	The Raptors, as I pointed out in my article from Sunday, are absolutely terrorizing teams in the second half, especially in the third quarter, and this game was no exception. Dwane Casey clearly puts the right messages in his players’ heads at halftime about the need to come out strong and take over games, regardless of who is or is not in the lineup.
Opponent Shooting %	44.8%	49.0%	Overall, the Lakers shot better against the Raptors than their season average.  That said, there is not a huge delta here – if you watched the game, the Lakers shot the lights out in the first half, even on closely contested jumpshots. The Raptors could not have defended many of those shots any better. Because of this, I will chalk up the differential to the Lakers just having an “on” night, not any major gaps on the Raptors part. Some of those gaps, however, can be seen in the possible playing of Vasquez at the 2 (see player stats at bottom of scouting report).
Effective FG % (adjusted for 3 pt being x1.5 as valuable as a 2 pt shot)	50.3%	47.6%	Despite a small dip in effective field goal percentage, there is not enough variance here that there need be any cause for concern. If anything, I expect this to go up moving forward as the Raptors (likely) take more three pointers and fewer mid-range jumpers with DeRozan out of the lineup.
Turnover Differential (Turnovers forced minus turnovers committed)	+5.4	+2.0	The Raptors have the highest percentage of games this season with fewer than 10 turnovers (7 / 17 games) and the highest percentage of games with a positive turnover differential (14 / 17 games). The game against the Lakers was no exception, as they had 8 turnovers committed compared to 10 turnovers forced.  This showed that even with DeRozan out of the lineup, the Raptors continue to make good decisions on offense even as they adjust to a new rotation. The small turnover differential in this game could be attributed to adjusting to new rotations defensively, which meant that the Raptors forced fewer turnovers than usual. I would expect this to revert to the mean in the next few games. Teams can never afford to give up possessions on offense, but teams playing the Raptors need to be especially focused on this because they will likely not get those possessions back by forcing turnovers. Fun fact: in the three-point era (1979-80 season to present), teams with a positive turnover differential win 58% of the time).
Passes (from SportVU)	283	274	This is one of the neat new metrics outputted from the SportVU player tracking technology, although I had to adjust the results from the Lakers game for overtime (was not able to filter for player tracking with passes – NBA.com needs to work on that!). Roughly speaking, the team is moving the ball at the same rate in terms of passes per game.
First half free throw rate (FTA per FGA)	0.322	0.146	This is one of Dean Oliver’s “Four Factor” - Oliver is a Caltech grad who is essentially the godfather of advanced basketball analytics, he currently works for the Kings. He has singled out four factors, which he has found, when weighted, correlate most closely with wins. One of the big concerns for the Raptors with DeRozan out of the lineup was how often they would get to the free throw line in his absence, as he was one of the NBA’s best this season at drawing fouls per 36 minutes. In the first half it was clear that the Raptors struggled to draw fouls, but in the second half they more than tripled their free throw rate. This coincided with, as mentioned above, a +9 point differential in the second half. What was encouraging was that players like Greivis Vasquez and Patrick Patterson, who traditionally have low free throw rates, did very well in the 2nd half in this area. Player Season Avg. FT Rate 1st Half FT Rate vs. LAL 2nd Half FT Rate vs. LAL Vasquez .156 .000 .400 Williams .471 .500 .455 Patterson .196 .500 1.000 Ross .110 .000 .000 Lowry .425 .272 .600 Opposing teams should be wary about how certain players, such as Vasquez and Patterson, could be seeking to draw fouls more in DeRozan’s absence – if the Lakers game is any indication. As I pointed out in yesterday's article, per 36 minutes Williams drew as many fouls as DeRozan
Second half free throw rate (FTA per FGA)	0.382	0.525

Player	First half minutes differential compared to average first half mpg	Second half minutes differential compared to average second half mpg	What does it mean?
Greivis Vasquez	+ 6	+5	Casey will undoubtedly be trying various rotations over the next few games and beyond, but appeared to favor Vasquez/James Johnson in terms of distributing DeRozan’s first half minutes, and favor Vasquez/Ross  in terms of distributing DeRozan’s second half minutes. Here were some interesting lineup statistics I derived that stood out – Lineup Minutes Played +/- Raptors FG % Vasquez and Lowry 22 -7 44.2% Vasquez (no Lowry) 12 0 47.6% Lowry (no Vasquez) 19 0 38.7% This is a good rotation note for opponents. Teams should look to take advantage of the lineup the Raptors have on the floor is when Vasquez is asked to play the 2, since this appears to opens up gaps in the Raptors defense as the primary cause for the negative point differential (since their shooting was not horrendous in any of these scenarios).
Terrence Ross	+ 1	+6
Lou Williams	- 1	+3
James Johnson	+ 4	-4